How to identify value in your bets? That’s the big question. How do you identify value, in a sought-after football market? My friend, Alex Napier, provides a useful how-to guide.
This soccer market is more than 11 months old now and still rife with mystery and volatility. Backers of some of the deals I’ve done in the market have struggled to understand the complex nature of the odds spread.
They’re like a lot of other markets fraught with upwards variance and over the course of the past 12 months, we’ve seen an upwards variance of about 3% primarily in the Asian Handicap market, yet on the same day we’ve seen movement on the British Market of tighter spreads.
Pinpointing soccer value
Now we all have different opinions about the chances of a particular team winning a game. We all make different bets or combinations of bets based on estimated likely outcome. I’ve even personally made a calculated assessment of the probability of my being right (consuming a lot of concentration and not forgetting that a correctly arrived estimate of a team’s chances is no guarantee of their actually winning).
The key for me then, is to identify those matches which provide the best value for money. This is the objective of betting on soccer and it usually turns out to be rather difficult to do.
Pinpointing reporting value
Another aspect of soccer betting which can prove particularly difficult to identify is the likelihood of a particular goal being scored. This is around the 24 hours after the match has ended. Sometimes this will be because the players are adjusting to the differing heights and distances of the goal posts along with any favourable weather conditions (eye disease may be a cause for instance).
The essential dilemma in trying to estimate the likelihood of a particular goal is partly due to the fact that goal scoring records are often incomplete and unmarked. In the absence of a recorded score, odds can be made to turn up anywhere and on any afternoon.
One solution to this problem has been to mark goal scoring margins with a special marker known as a puffer. This small marking tool simply needs to be dabbed on to the goalwards of the two teams after the final whistle. Other fingers can then be expected on the results of such goals from that particular match.
Scoring beacons and hotshots
Once a goal has been scored in a game, a useful tool to help locate more likely goals is the presence of a ‘Naga303‘ sign. These are usually somewhat resembles an actual goal stationed in the penalty area. Especially away from home, the penalty area is the best place to socialize these marker types.
eared markers that can be carried in your pocket or bag to help you intimidate your fellow players is a useful tool to have in your arsenal. Set a custom settings that notify you with a beret or other signal that somebody scored a goal, when you receive a yellow card, you will know that you are suddenly in the hot seat.
Lessly regulatory’ rules’
The presence of a red card or a yellow card does traditionally denote a more powerful player. This is useful in the event of a fierce attack by a rogue player. One needs to be lenient and not take out the handbooks just yet when receiving a yellow card. One needs to go out not to lose a point or risk being dropped out of the competitive scene. As the coach dictates.
Materazzi’s suspension may soon be history as one of the Board of referees will be happy to put the infamous peel in his second yellow card of the competition, given for a nasty challenge on business Henderson.
The 25 year old Italian, who has won the hearts of many fans with his guileless play, will no doubt have admirers at the betting window. He has a contract with Nice that has a release in June, 2011. Given his status as a keen kickabout player, a lack of match fitness and offensive upside,relation to Hendon looks wrong on paper. Has 77 caps for Italy.
Follow the opinions on the forums and expect to hear a lot ofargon on the topic. opinion-boxes.
The bookmakers will be coming up with more and more advanced computer programs and spread betting companies will be churning out more software to suit the betters needs.
The new sport betting pal, done to enhance the betting experience will soon be.